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Tony Grist

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Climate Science [Aug. 26th, 2019|12:54 pm]
Tony Grist
Another very hot day. I gather records are being broken. In spite of there being no breeze to speak of the trees- some of them anyway- are quietly, unobtrusively, shedding leaves.

I've no doubt climate change is happening. However I belong to the school- one that's gathering strength- that says that what we're seeing is the brief period of warming that precedes a mini-ice age. I'm no scientist and all my information is taken on trust (apparently you need to examine the ice cores) so I've not been shouting about it. If you're going up against an orthodoxy it's advisable to have evidence to back one's opinion. The same applies if you're defending an orthodoxy- perhaps even more so- because orthodoxies usually turn out to be wrong.

"Settled science"? Pah. There's no such thing. The medievals thought their science was settled and along came Galileo. The Newtonians thought the same and along came Quantum Mechanics. The history of science is littered with examples of very clever people making very silly, soon to be falsified pronouncements- and all because of an over confidence which looks a lot like intellectual cowardice. The idea that any idea in any field of human knowledge is fixed for ever is essentially unscientific. The most we ever have are working hypotheses.
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Comments:
[User Picture]From: matrixmann
2019-08-26 12:52 pm (UTC)
In the loud political discussion about that, I think such stances come up short.
But, on the other hand, I can guess the reason for that myself.
Nature fucking with mankind, no matter how ascetic they start to live tomorrow, - this idea doesn't sell well. With that, you cannot pressure people into buying new stuff that's allegedly "ecofriendly". Not a good base for capitalism which lives from selling shit to idiots...
On the sidelines, some may start to really feel invited to become fatalistic hearing such a message, even though it's still not entirely unimportant that the wealthy half of the world gets down from its current buy,use-one&throw-away standard.
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[User Picture]From: matrixmann
2019-08-26 12:53 pm (UTC)
Damn, it's supposed to be "buy,use-once&throw-away" in the last sentence.
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[User Picture]From: poliphilo
2019-08-26 03:05 pm (UTC)
Climate change happens. We're worrying about the tundra defrosting- but it's done it before- or the mammoths etc wouldn't have been able to survive there. The thing is to bend with whatever wind is blowing.
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[User Picture]From: matrixmann
2019-08-26 03:55 pm (UTC)
What demasks the recent craze best actually is - the voices preaching to stop throwing all that plastic into the ocean, to stop burning all these many fossil fuels and to not catch the oceans empty, they've been there since the middle of the 70s in the West. And how much were they laughed at and ignored?
Now they all wanna tell they get cold feet, but behind the scenes the story of plethora continues as it ever did. So, how much is one supposed to believe of that alleged "remorse"? It's the acts that count, not sweet words, and the acts show "no change of the course".
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[User Picture]From: mallorys_camera
2019-08-26 01:03 pm (UTC)
Does it really matter if it's a "brief period of warming" or a more ingrained climactic shift? 😀

The point is that the results are likely to be disastrous. In terms of famine and the political/social shifts that accompany famine (mass migration, fundamentalism.)

So, if humans have any ability to control the temperature fluctuation, they ought to.

Although I definitely agree with matrixmann below that so-called green technology is the latest capitalist economic bubble.
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[User Picture]From: poliphilo
2019-08-26 03:08 pm (UTC)
But if we're preparing for rising temperatures when what is actually coming down the pike is an ice age?

Of course I think we should do all that we can to clean up our act. It's not clever to be pumping the seas and the atmosphere full of poison.
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[User Picture]From: akalablossom
2019-08-26 02:37 pm (UTC)
All I know is that it is getting REALLY hot out.
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[User Picture]From: poliphilo
2019-08-26 03:21 pm (UTC)
It certainly is.

But I'm in Britain and I know it won't last.
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[User Picture]From: davesmusictank
2019-08-26 05:30 pm (UTC)
We will be complaining about rain doon again I guess.
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[User Picture]From: poliphilo
2019-08-27 06:37 am (UTC)
Of course. It's who we are!
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[User Picture]From: akalablossom
2019-08-26 11:55 pm (UTC)
No. You have the (in)famous English rain. :) Lucky!
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[User Picture]From: poliphilo
2019-08-27 06:41 am (UTC)
We complain about it all the time but in fact we Brits enjoy one of the kindest climates in the world.
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[User Picture]From: akalablossom
2019-08-27 08:26 am (UTC)
Aye so. :)
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[User Picture]From: bleodswean
2019-08-26 03:16 pm (UTC)
Yep.
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[User Picture]From: mexpatriot
2019-08-26 04:52 pm (UTC)
Makes sense to me!
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[User Picture]From: davesmusictank
2019-08-26 05:27 pm (UTC)
Science is just that - a working hypothesis till a better one comes along or some other paradigm shift.
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[User Picture]From: poliphilo
2019-08-27 06:35 am (UTC)
Exactly.
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[User Picture]From: inamellowmood
2019-08-26 07:15 pm (UTC)
Well, the theory of super-fast global warming has more holes in it than a wool sweater that moths have been nesting in for a century, and more and more of the supposed evndence for it has been disproven or outed as fraudulent (the latest news on that is especially juicy), so...the door is open for other possibilities than imminent world-wide tropical swamp.
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[User Picture]From: poliphilo
2019-08-27 06:36 am (UTC)
But we do so love to frighten ourselves, don't we!
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[User Picture]From: inamellowmood
2019-08-27 05:51 pm (UTC)
Yes, and of course also a lot of people feel a sense of looming dread and they want someting to fasten it to and blame it on.
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[User Picture]From: puddleshark
2019-08-27 12:03 pm (UTC)
I know you like to play Devil's Advocate, but when it comes to disregarding all the scientific research about rising CO2 levels, my cage is easily rattled!

Yes, the Earth has often experienced periods of rapid warming during the past, such as during the Permian Extinction. If we don't reign in our CO2 emissions, there's a distinct possibility we're heading for our own Permian-style extinction event.

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[User Picture]From: poliphilo
2019-08-27 02:58 pm (UTC)
Rising CO2 levels are a bad thing in themselves but they may not be the cause of global warming. My understanding is that the warming is a part of a natural cycle which will very quickly- probably within our lifetimes- give way to the beginnings of a mini-ice age.
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